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The minor adjustments to international trade policies in 2025 are triggering a chain reaction in the electronic components industry chain, and the criteria for origin determination have become a key variable influencing the layout of enterprises.

The core of the policy: The origin attribute is determined by the wafer tape-out location

The latest rules of China's customs clearly state that the origin of a chip is determined by the location of the wafer fabrication plant and has nothing to do with the location of packaging and testing. This definition has produced a significant differentiation effect: fabless enterprises such as NVIDIA and Qualcomm, as their chips are mainly taped out in overseas factories like TSMC and Samsung, are basically not affected by additional tariffs. Even if some of their products rely on US factories, they can avoid risks by transferring production capacity. For companies like Intel and Micron that own domestic wafer fabrication plants in the United States, their China-bound products will be classified as "US origin" and face a high tariff of 125%.

Industrial impact: Regional layout is accelerating its formation

The policy has directly impacted the global semiconductor division of labor pattern. Taiwan, China, is responsible for over 60% of the global chip production and 90% of the advanced process capacity. As a result, the product flow between Taiwan and manufacturing bases in South Korea, Japan and other countries has been forced to be adjusted. To address risks, enterprises are accelerating the regional agglomeration of their supply chains: the United States is promoting the return of manufacturing, the European Union has passed the "Chips Act" to strengthen domestic production capacity, and China is focusing on domestic substitution in areas such as automotive-grade IGBTs and high-end MLCCS. Although the import value of high-end products will still reach 386 billion US dollars in 2024, local breakthroughs have already emerged.

Enterprise response: Flexibly adjust and bind with technology

Leading enterprises have demonstrated extremely strong adaptability: US factories without factories have increased the risk of capacity transfer from Taiwan and South Korea. Domestic manufacturer Silan Microelectronics has been deeply engaged in high-threshold markets such as automobiles and new energy, with its profit increasing by 11 times in the first three quarters. Many enterprises have set up packaging and testing bases in Southeast Asia, forming a pattern where "core technologies are in the local area and production processes are globalized". The more profound change lies in the deepening of technological cooperation - domestic enterprises and material manufacturers jointly develop key substrates such as ceramic matrix composites, attempting to reduce reliance on foreign sources from the source.